Global warming has given Moscow confidence that it will be able to radically expand shipping on the Northern Sea Route and has led Russian officials to believe that Western sanctions against their country are a far greater obstacle to the road development as climatic conditions, Aleksandr Yulin said.
But they are wrong, says the head of projections at the Moscow Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, both because there has been a “pause” in warming along the route and because warming air leads to more blown icebergs. in shipping lanes (profile.ru/economy/ne-zastryat-vo-ldah-obojdut-li-sankcii-po-severnomu-morskomu-puti-1091720/).
The climate is getting warmer, says Yulin. But the rate of change in the North is slowing. Indeed, we must now speak of a “climate pause”, since the rates of change are much lower today than they were a decade or more ago. And at the same time the warming has meant that the winds have gotten stronger and these are pushing more icebergs into the shipping lanes.
This can lead to a disaster with ships stranded far from ports where they can take refuge or be repaired and means that Moscow must build many more icebreakers than it currently does if it is to ensure safe passage and any increase significant traffic. the Northern Sea Route can transport.